Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians

6:40 PM EST. Wade Miley, who's 38, only pitched in seven innings in 2024 after a left elbow injury required surgery and abruptly brought his season to an end. Last Wednesday the Reds signed Miley to a one-year deal, a decision that already seems a bit foolish. In his first appearance, Miley was smacked for six hits and four runs against an advantageous Milwaukee offense. The Reds clubhouse already suffers from poor pitching (15th in home-runs allowed, 25th in strikes per nine innings) and we doubt they'll see much of an upgrade on Monday. Cleveland will start Luis Ortiz (4.02 ERA), who just had a great outing versus the Yankees and has shown solid command over his last five starts (only seven runs permitted). We like the home team by margin.

Wager: Guardians -1.5 (+125 at Bovada), to win 1.25 units

Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals

7:45 PM EST. Frankly, we're surprised this total isn't much higher. Neither Jose Berrios (3.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP over 76 innings) or Andre Pallante (4.91 ERA, 1.38 WHIP over 66 innings) have been in their best form lately, and both will be facing off against top offenses. St. Louis and Toronto are both top-7 in batting average, on base percentage, and strikeouts per nine innings. Expanding on why we love this wager, Berrios has allowed 22 hits and 11 runs in his last five starts, while Pallante is even worse in the same duration (29 hits, 18 runs, yikes!). Even better, both offenses are coming off lowly performances from the plate (three runs each), so this is a fantastic spot for regression.

Wager: First five over 4.5 (-113 at FanDuel), to win 1 unit